Where we stand in Houston...

NHL players have been locked out by the owners because the union and owners haven't agreed on a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The main issue involves the dividing of what is called "Hockey Related Revenue" (HRR). The owners want it to be split 50/50 starting this year and the players don't want it reduced to 50/50 from the current 57/43. This morning they are having another meeting, yet few are optimistic as any hopes that have arisen have soon been dashed.

So, how are the MN Wild prospects doing? A couple of the most highly touted prospects, Mikail Granlund (C) and Jonas Brodin (D), started out terrifically but were injured a couple of weeks ago. Granlund has an injured ankle and is expected to return in a couple of weeks. He had 12 points in 8 games before he got injured. Brodin had 2 goals and 2 assists in 8 games before breaking his collarbone in a big check from Taylor Hall from Oklahoma City.

Both players have drawn raves from the coaches and the media who have covered the team.

Other players who have performed very well? Jason Zucker (12 GP, 7 G, 6 A) and Justin Fontaine (15 GP, 5 G, 8 A) are tied for the team lead in scoring, but, you may have noticed, Zucker has played 3 fewer games. Additionally, Zucker is only 20 years old while Fontaine is 24. It's been reported that the Houston coach, John Torchetti, is convinced that Fontaine will be an NHLer, so that bodes well. Don't get too excited, however, about seeing ALL of these prospects play for MN (if the NHL ever plays again...ugh), as there isn't enough room on the roster for all of these players to play on the roster. I'd expect some players who or promising prospects will be traded. Will one of those players be Fontaine or Zucker? Who knows, but they or some other prospects will have to be moved to maximize their value for the Wild.

Charlie Coyle (16 GP, 7 G, 4 A), a big power forward acquired in the trade involving Brent Burns, has been terrific from the perspective of those who have seen him. He does everything right -including his defensive play. Michael Russo, NHL writer of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, says, in his view, it's a sure thing that Coyle will be on the opening day roster when the NHL resumes play. I think that may require a roster move to make space for him.

Zach Philips (14 GP, 1 G, 4 A) has been...bad. He hasn't contributed offensively and, of the games I've watched, has been slow and an almost complete non-factor. I inquired with a media person who covers the Aeros and she agrees he hasn't done much and says that she feels that Philips is going to have to "redefine" his role as a professional. I interpreted that to mean that he is going to have to contribute defensively. To do that at the NHL level, he's going to have to become much faster and embrace some physical play.

The goalies for Houston, Matthew Hackett (12 GP, 3.14 GAA, .893 sv%) and Darcy Kuemper (5 GP, 2.56, .898 sv%)have been disappointing thus far. Both are the subject of high expectation. I've not read the explanation of the staff or media for their subpar performance thus far.

My Draft Predictions

First, all of the following predictions assume no trades are made.  Of course, on draft day, there are plenty of trades!  I've put an asterisk (*) next to those teams that I think are likely to trade.  I explain my rationale after the list.

1.  Edmonton Oilers*:  Nail Yakupov
2.  Columbus Blue Jackets:  Alex Galchenyuk
3.  Montreal Canadiens:  Mikhail Grigorenko
4.  NY Islanders:  Mathew Dumba
5.  Toronto Maple Leafs:  Filip Forsberg
6.  Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Murray
7.  Minnesota Wild*:  Cody Ceci
8.  Carolina Hurricanes:  Teuvo Teravainen
9.  Winnipeg Jets:  Morgan Rielly
10.  Tampa Bay Lightning*:  Jacob Trouba
11.  Washington Capitals* (from Colorado): Griffin Reinhart
12.  Buffalo Sabres*:  Radek Faksa
13.  Dallas Stars:  Derrick Pouliot
14.  Calgary Flames:  Sebastian Collberg
15.  Ottawa Senators:  Brendan Gaunce
16.  Washington Capitals:  Zemgus Girgensons
17.  San Jose Sharks:  Pontus Aberg
18.  Chicago Blackhawks:  Matthew Finn
19.  Tampa Bay Lightning (from Detroit):  Malcolm Subban
20.  Philadelphia Flyers:  Slater Koekkoek
21.  Buffalo Sabres (from Nashville):  Tomas Hertl
22.  Pittsburgh Penguins:  Olli Maatta
23.  Florida Panthers*:  Andrei Vasilevski
24.  Boston Bruins:  Brady Skjei
25.  St. Louis Blues:  Thomas Wilson
26.  Vancouver Canucks*:  Hampus Lindholm
27.  Phoenix Coyotes:  Martin Frk
28.  NY Rangers:  Michael Matheson
29.  New Jersey Devils:  Oscar Dansk
30.  Los Angeles Kings:  Stefan Matteau

The reason I've selected certain teams as likely to trade during the draft.
Edmonton:  they don't need yet another young, high caliber forward.  They need skilled defensemen.
Minnesota:  MN general manager likes to trade at the draft.  The almost complete lack of defensive prospects necessitates trying to get a second 1st round pick.  I look for them to try to acquire Washington, Tampa or Buffalo's pick or simply to trade down 1-3 spots.  It also depends on how many of the defensemen they want are still on the board at number 7.
Washington, Tampa and Buffalo:  All three teams have two 1st round picks.  They may package them to move up.  I'd be surprised if at least one of them didn't do that.
Florida:  They have a lot of young, talented prospects.  They may trade one of them with a pick for an established NHL player.
Vancouver:  They want to move Roberto Luongo.  Indeed, perhaps they'll move him to Florida.

2012 Top Prospects Spreadsheet with Stats

Here is a link for a spreadsheet that shows key statistics for the top prospects according to the NHLs Central Scouting Service.  In the first column, I've added my predictions for where each player will fall during the draft but, of course, there will be trades made.  I've noted on numerous websites that I strongly feel that Minnesota will end up with two 1st round draft picks. 

I took this spreadsheet from this website and added a bit more data.  All data I added was from hockeydb.com.  You can take the data from the original website and manipulate it to fit your own needs.  I plan to use mine during draft weekend.

Wild Prospects and Needs Entering the 2012 Draft

The Minnesota Wild have a solid group of young players who are just beginning turn professional this summer.  First amongst them is Mikael Granlund, a smallish forward who has played in the last three years in the Finnish Elite League and been a dominant player.  The next most touted prospect is Charlie Coyle (W), a player who transferred from Boston University to the QMJHL in the middle of the 2011-2012 season and was acquired as a part of a trade that sent Brent Burns to San Jose.  He has been described as a "man amongst boys" since his move to the "Q".  Additional players include Johan Larsson (C), Jason Zucker (W), Zack Phillips (C), Brent Bulmer (W) and, the lone player who isn't a forward, Jonas Brodin, a defenseman from Sweden.  All of these players are considered to be NHL players -it's just a matter of when and to what extent they will be productive players while they are there.

On the Houston Aeros, their minor league affiliate, they have two goalies, Matt Hackett and Darcy Kuemper.  Both are considered talented prospects.  They also signed their 2010 6th round draft pick, Johan Gustafsson, a Swedish goalie who had quite a good season in the Swedish Elite League and is expected to return there for the 2012-13 season.  While Hackett has had an appearance in 12 NHL games, it does remain to be seen which one will be the inheritor of Nick Backstrom in the 2013-2014 season.

Beyond the goalies, there hasn't been much in Houston to get excited about.  The forwards are potential grinders, at best, and the defensemen don't offer much excitement, either.  There may be, at most, a couple defensemen who might develop into NHLers with Tyler Cuma and Steven Kampfer.
Now, it certainly is possible other players like Chad Rau, Jarod Palmer, Nick Palmieri and perhaps a few others could be productive, however, there isn't enough of a likelihood of it happening that it would alter the "needs" the Wild may consider when selecting in the draft.

The most stark need for Minnesota is on the blue line.  Beyond Brodin, there isn't a single highly touted prospect either in Houston or elsewhere in the system. It's current defensecorps is made up of Prosser, Scandella, Spurgeon, Falk, Gilbert and Stoner.  Every player except Gilbert is relatively inexperienced.  Spurgeon has been a pleasant surprise since he was signed a couple of years ago and likely will have a role on the team into the future.  He moves the puck very well, is very smart and it seems his small stature isn't a particular liability.  Scandella, often considered a potential top-two defenseman, has been very erratic and, in my view, not as promising as others suggest.  I'd consider him a 3-4 defenseman -though he is certainly young.  Defensemen are generally thought of as slower to develop than forwards.  Stoner is physical and solid defensively.  Prosser is a bit of an agitator who will have to continue to grow to be more than a 5-6 defenseman and Falk is a big player who really doesn't use his size much and offers no offensive upside.  Next year I expect Falk to be a member of some other team via trade, waivers or in Houston.  Another D may be moved as a part of a trade, though I expect Spurgeon, Gilbert and Stoner to remain. 

Considering that the team's most stark weakness in its prospect pool is at defense, it would seem that it would be the target of their moves at the draft.  I use the phrase "target of their moves at the draft" because while I expect them to draft at least two defensemen -indeed, possibly three- I consider it also possible that a trade occurs that nets them a prime defensive prospect from other team.