My Draft Predictions

First, all of the following predictions assume no trades are made.  Of course, on draft day, there are plenty of trades!  I've put an asterisk (*) next to those teams that I think are likely to trade.  I explain my rationale after the list.

1.  Edmonton Oilers*:  Nail Yakupov
2.  Columbus Blue Jackets:  Alex Galchenyuk
3.  Montreal Canadiens:  Mikhail Grigorenko
4.  NY Islanders:  Mathew Dumba
5.  Toronto Maple Leafs:  Filip Forsberg
6.  Anaheim Ducks: Ryan Murray
7.  Minnesota Wild*:  Cody Ceci
8.  Carolina Hurricanes:  Teuvo Teravainen
9.  Winnipeg Jets:  Morgan Rielly
10.  Tampa Bay Lightning*:  Jacob Trouba
11.  Washington Capitals* (from Colorado): Griffin Reinhart
12.  Buffalo Sabres*:  Radek Faksa
13.  Dallas Stars:  Derrick Pouliot
14.  Calgary Flames:  Sebastian Collberg
15.  Ottawa Senators:  Brendan Gaunce
16.  Washington Capitals:  Zemgus Girgensons
17.  San Jose Sharks:  Pontus Aberg
18.  Chicago Blackhawks:  Matthew Finn
19.  Tampa Bay Lightning (from Detroit):  Malcolm Subban
20.  Philadelphia Flyers:  Slater Koekkoek
21.  Buffalo Sabres (from Nashville):  Tomas Hertl
22.  Pittsburgh Penguins:  Olli Maatta
23.  Florida Panthers*:  Andrei Vasilevski
24.  Boston Bruins:  Brady Skjei
25.  St. Louis Blues:  Thomas Wilson
26.  Vancouver Canucks*:  Hampus Lindholm
27.  Phoenix Coyotes:  Martin Frk
28.  NY Rangers:  Michael Matheson
29.  New Jersey Devils:  Oscar Dansk
30.  Los Angeles Kings:  Stefan Matteau

The reason I've selected certain teams as likely to trade during the draft.
Edmonton:  they don't need yet another young, high caliber forward.  They need skilled defensemen.
Minnesota:  MN general manager likes to trade at the draft.  The almost complete lack of defensive prospects necessitates trying to get a second 1st round pick.  I look for them to try to acquire Washington, Tampa or Buffalo's pick or simply to trade down 1-3 spots.  It also depends on how many of the defensemen they want are still on the board at number 7.
Washington, Tampa and Buffalo:  All three teams have two 1st round picks.  They may package them to move up.  I'd be surprised if at least one of them didn't do that.
Florida:  They have a lot of young, talented prospects.  They may trade one of them with a pick for an established NHL player.
Vancouver:  They want to move Roberto Luongo.  Indeed, perhaps they'll move him to Florida.

2012 Top Prospects Spreadsheet with Stats

Here is a link for a spreadsheet that shows key statistics for the top prospects according to the NHLs Central Scouting Service.  In the first column, I've added my predictions for where each player will fall during the draft but, of course, there will be trades made.  I've noted on numerous websites that I strongly feel that Minnesota will end up with two 1st round draft picks. 

I took this spreadsheet from this website and added a bit more data.  All data I added was from hockeydb.com.  You can take the data from the original website and manipulate it to fit your own needs.  I plan to use mine during draft weekend.

Wild Prospects and Needs Entering the 2012 Draft

The Minnesota Wild have a solid group of young players who are just beginning turn professional this summer.  First amongst them is Mikael Granlund, a smallish forward who has played in the last three years in the Finnish Elite League and been a dominant player.  The next most touted prospect is Charlie Coyle (W), a player who transferred from Boston University to the QMJHL in the middle of the 2011-2012 season and was acquired as a part of a trade that sent Brent Burns to San Jose.  He has been described as a "man amongst boys" since his move to the "Q".  Additional players include Johan Larsson (C), Jason Zucker (W), Zack Phillips (C), Brent Bulmer (W) and, the lone player who isn't a forward, Jonas Brodin, a defenseman from Sweden.  All of these players are considered to be NHL players -it's just a matter of when and to what extent they will be productive players while they are there.

On the Houston Aeros, their minor league affiliate, they have two goalies, Matt Hackett and Darcy Kuemper.  Both are considered talented prospects.  They also signed their 2010 6th round draft pick, Johan Gustafsson, a Swedish goalie who had quite a good season in the Swedish Elite League and is expected to return there for the 2012-13 season.  While Hackett has had an appearance in 12 NHL games, it does remain to be seen which one will be the inheritor of Nick Backstrom in the 2013-2014 season.

Beyond the goalies, there hasn't been much in Houston to get excited about.  The forwards are potential grinders, at best, and the defensemen don't offer much excitement, either.  There may be, at most, a couple defensemen who might develop into NHLers with Tyler Cuma and Steven Kampfer.
Now, it certainly is possible other players like Chad Rau, Jarod Palmer, Nick Palmieri and perhaps a few others could be productive, however, there isn't enough of a likelihood of it happening that it would alter the "needs" the Wild may consider when selecting in the draft.

The most stark need for Minnesota is on the blue line.  Beyond Brodin, there isn't a single highly touted prospect either in Houston or elsewhere in the system. It's current defensecorps is made up of Prosser, Scandella, Spurgeon, Falk, Gilbert and Stoner.  Every player except Gilbert is relatively inexperienced.  Spurgeon has been a pleasant surprise since he was signed a couple of years ago and likely will have a role on the team into the future.  He moves the puck very well, is very smart and it seems his small stature isn't a particular liability.  Scandella, often considered a potential top-two defenseman, has been very erratic and, in my view, not as promising as others suggest.  I'd consider him a 3-4 defenseman -though he is certainly young.  Defensemen are generally thought of as slower to develop than forwards.  Stoner is physical and solid defensively.  Prosser is a bit of an agitator who will have to continue to grow to be more than a 5-6 defenseman and Falk is a big player who really doesn't use his size much and offers no offensive upside.  Next year I expect Falk to be a member of some other team via trade, waivers or in Houston.  Another D may be moved as a part of a trade, though I expect Spurgeon, Gilbert and Stoner to remain. 

Considering that the team's most stark weakness in its prospect pool is at defense, it would seem that it would be the target of their moves at the draft.  I use the phrase "target of their moves at the draft" because while I expect them to draft at least two defensemen -indeed, possibly three- I consider it also possible that a trade occurs that nets them a prime defensive prospect from other team.

The Top 10 Ranked Prospects According to International Scouting Services (ISS)

I chose to use the International Scouting Services list, as opposed to the NHL's Central Scouting because Central Scouting categorized players into North American and European plus by Skaters and Goalies.  Besides various news services (TSN.ca, for example) I believe these are the two primary professional scouting groups. 

Be aware, that beyond the number one pick, there isn't much consensus about the specific order of the prospects.  It all makes for a very interesting draft!

#1 FORWARD #2 FORWARD #3 DEFENSEMAN #4 FORWARD #5 DEFENSEMAN #6 DEFENSEMAN #7 DEFENSEMAN #8 FORWARD #9 DEFENSEMAN #10 DEFENSEMAN

MN Possible Roster

I've created my own possible Minnesota Wild roster on the capgeek.com website.  Capgeek.com is a great website where you can look at the contracts/salaries for various NHL players and teams.  You can create your own roster in which you can trade, sign, and call up players from the minors.  You can determine you own salaries for players, as well.  One thing is clear is that it shows that Minnesota can afford both Parise and Suter and, perhaps, Matt Carle.  View my roster and create your own...

The Wild Goalie and Defensemen's Evaluation for 2011-12

Defensemen:  Minnesota's defense was horrible last year.  In terms of goals given up, they were tied for the 15th lowest at 226 goals, but the bigger problem was that they didn't contribute to the offense -as a unit they scored fewer than 20 goals.  The team had a few trades during the season involving their defense.  In February, they traded Marek Zidlicky to New Jersey.  Zidlicky made it clear he wanted a trade because he felt he wasn't being used in a constructive manner -to put it lightly.   Minnesota also traded longtime Wild defenseman Nick Schultz to Edmonton for Minnesota born-and-raised Tommy Gilbert.  It seemed a win-win trade, because Minnesota gained a bit more offense, while Edmonton gained a bit more defensive skill.  Finally, Minnesota traded Greg Zanon to Boston for Steven Kampfer.  The Wild weren't going to re-sign Zanon anyway, so they managed to get a young and more offensively skilled forward in return.  Of those that were on the roster for most of the year, Stoner was solid with his physical and relatively strong defensive play.  Again, however, he was fighting injuries for a portion of the season.  Minnesota has re-signed him for an additional two years.  Marco Scandella has yet to live up to his promise.  He really struggled with his defensive game and was, at times, a real liability on the blueline.  In fact, in a decisive move, he was sent to Houston for a while to reacquire some focus.  Jared Spurgeon continued to improve.  His offensive skill continued to scintillate given his youth and he also continued to show few liabilities in his defensive coverage.  Finally, two other defensemen bear comment.  Nate Prosser was given a two year one-way contract because of his performance to that point.  He was really quite good defensively and actually was given just a bit of powerplay time.  However, like almost the entire roster, as the year passed, his performance began to slide.  He likely is only a third pairing defenseman.  Justin Falk had a few moments in which he was solid defensively, but -more frequently- he was frustrating for his unwillingness to use his 6'5" size to his advantage.  If only Minnesota could take Spurgeon's brain and transplant it into Falk...  Given that isn't possible, I think Falk will not be in Minnesota next year and will either be picked up via waivers or moved in a trade. 


Goalies:  Backstrom is solid as long as his performance in shootouts is not a consideration.  If a team is in the playoffs, that's fine, but MN has lost too many points because of his very poor performance post-overtime.  He has one more year left at $6 million and will be gone after next season.  Josh Harding has an expiring contract and will enter free agency looking for a starting role.  He was at times spectacular, while at other times porous which was best illustrated by his January 31 game against Nashville in which he gave up four goals in the third period which lead to a 5-4 loss.  Matt Hackett seems to be the next quality goalie that Minnesota will have in the NHL.  He played in 12 games and only won three and lost six but his save percentage was .922 and his Goals Against Average was 2.37 -both very good numbers.  A number of his starts were while the team, as a whole, was playing very poorly.

The Wild Forwards' Evaluation for 2011-12

The Wild had two primary problems during the 2011-12 season.  They were decimated by injuries.  Only three players -Heatley, Brodziak and Powe- played all 82 games.  The lost Guillaume Latendress for all but 16 games, Pierre-Marc Bouchard for 45 games and Mikko Koivu for 27 games.  All three players are very important, top-six forwards for Minnesota.  The loss of these players played an important part in Minnesota's inability to score. A few of the positive and also a few of the disappointing players will be noted here.

Dany Heatley was acquired in a trade with San Jose, in which we gave them Martin Havlat.  The trade served two purposes for Minnesota.  First, apparently, Havlat didn't ever gel with his teammates either on or off of the ice.  Second, Minnesota needed to add a shooter and Heatley is nothing if not a shooter.  Heatley potted 24 goals and at times was the offensive player Minnesota had hoped for, but he didn't perform at that high level as often as liked.  That being said, he was one of only two forwards who played regular minutes that was plus.   Mikko Koivu again demonstrated how important he is for this roster.  He contributed in every facet of the game and led by example.  Koivu collected 44 points in 55 games and led the team with a plus-10.  Kyle Brodziak was rewarded with a three year contract extension because of his terrific year in which he lifted his offensive output to a career high of 44 points.  By necessity, he was used in an expanded offensive role.  This provided him with more opportunity, but it wouldn't have been his role had there not been so many injuries.  One forward, in my view, is under-appreciated.  Darroll Powe was acquired from Philidelphia for his forechecking, physical play and energy.  He did all of those things.  Additionally, when the team was beginning its downward spiral, Powe became more physical and dropped the gloves a few times when the team needed a lift.  At times, it seemed as if he was the only one who was angry about how poorly the team was performing.  Honestly, I don't understand how nobody in the public or media recognized the timing of those actions and his contributions.  Finally, Matt Kassian played in 24 games and posted no points except for when he scored two goals against Montreal in a lopsided loss.  I thought his work along the boards was good for an enforcer as was his sense to "go to the net" to create traffic and bang away at any loose pucks.  His willingness to engage in fisticuffs, of course, continues to not be an issue.

Putting aside the injuries, there weren't that many regulars in the line-up for which one would have reasonably high expectations.  The player that was the most disappointing was Devin Setoguchi.  He has speed and a willingness to shoot, but the team certainly hoped for more than 19 goals and 36 points.  There were stretches of games where he was a complete nonfactor.  Fortunately, he's young and will certainly have much better years in the future -hopefully in Minnesota.  Another player that was good for certain periods of times, yet entirely absent for other periods of time was Matt Cullen.  Once again, he started the year hot, but then, for the second year in a row, put up very limited production the second half of the year.  Finally, though he only played nine games, I was really unimpressed with Nick Palmieri.  Palmieri was acquired as a part of the trade of Zidlicky to New Jersey.  He is supposed to be a power forward with some offensive skill but I saw no power, no offensive skill, no speed, no fire, no...anything.  He contributed exactly zero goals and zero assists in nine games.  He'll be in Houston all of next year unless he's traded or shows he belongs on an NHL roster.  This is particularly true as Minnesota has two promising power forwards entering their system this summer.