Going into the summer of 2016

Okay, these thoughts are just being written down so I can organize them and the rationale behind moves I'd think GM Chuck Fletcher could make.

First, MN trades Scandella for Bjugstad.  Their cap hits are approximately the same, as well as the term.  Florida needs a (younger) LD with a manageable cap hit.  MN needs a big center who can score.  Bjugstad IS big and he can snipe and certainly has the potential to score.   Florida has a surplus of young centers and Bjugstad's growth has plateaued a bit and there may be injury concerns.  Another season of either and his value will be diminished.  Other pieces may be added to make this what I had described to someone on Twitter as an "epic" trade.  It seems they are close to signing a very good prospect who is from...Hudson, Wisconsin.  Is this the final piece of the puzzle that is to be included in the trade?  If we are giving up TWO defensemen (risky, IMO), it would seem reasonable to require a D in return and it seems as if the prospect, Ian McCoshen, is good.

So, cap hit is a wash after that move.  Florida would sure like to move Bolland and his 3 year $5.5AAV cap hit.  He'll be placed on LTIR and cannot be bought out.  Is this something MN will add if they are able?  I've wondered if Vanek would be a part of the deal.  We lose the $6.5AAV for next year, but take the risk and burden of Bolland for two years beyond that.  Unfortunately, losing Vanek in that way doesn't make us a better team for this next season.

Next, I think they trade Granlund for a 1st round pick.  Next year, in the expansion draft, they will only be able to protect 7 forwards.  They will certainly include:  Koivu, Parise, Pominville, Coyle, Niederreiter, Haula and Bjugstad.  If Granlund IS NOT traded, he or one of the other young players won't be protected and will certainly be lost and nothing will be gained.  Why move Granlund and not another young player?  The others have clear roles on the team with greater "upside".  Granlund had a strong playoffs and had a great World Championships.  I predicted Carolina or New Jersey may take him.  We lose a $3.0 cap hit, allowing us to more easily pay for Dumba and Zucker and possibly take on Bolland's cap hit.

With the 2nd 1st round pick, they could combine it and move up in the draft to spots 3-6 and acquire a young, higher skilled forward.

Of course, they'll move Kuemper for whatever they can get at the draft.

I think they hold on to Zucker to give themselves some protection/leverage with the expansion draft.  This season will also provide an opportunity to raise his value after a pretty poor season.

MY top 25-under 25, part 2

Let me start with what I prefaced my previous post on this topic:

Hockey Wilderness has made a top 25 list of prospects who are under 25 years old.  A great idea.  So, in one night (okay, part 2 was written on a second night...) and, thus, without as much elaboration as they likely will have, I decided to go through the exercise myself.

My criteria seeks to balance the likelihood of a prospect being on a NHL roster for more than a few games at some point in their career with to what degree they will be a real contributor on the the team.  A sure-thing 3rd/4th liner makes it, yet there are those more skilled players who likely won't be able to make the transition to the grinder role of a 4th liner for some variety of reasons.  Some players may have a significant role on some other NHL team besides the Wild because of contracts tying up roster spots.  Additionally, the most recent draft class gets the benefit of the doubt.  There weren't any "what??" choices this year unlike the last two years.  On the other hand, in some instances players who were just signed or drafted could be at a disadvantage because, just as they have less to discount them, there is less to propel them to the higher end of the rankings.

Finally, let me preface my amateur analysis with stating that I lack tons of information and context (don't virtually all bloggers??), and that I hope those that I say aren't very good prospects any more prove me wrong.  I think -truly and honestly- it would be super cool if someone like Pontus Sjalin or Louis Nanne actually had some time in the NHL.

Now, to part 2...

1. Eriksson-Ek C  He's a bigger center, with a good shot who plays a two way game.  Okay, we need a bigger center with a good shot.  Two-way game?  Yawn.  I just hope he's got more offense than Mikko.
2. Tuch RW  Size, skill, leading scorer as a Freshman on his Boston College team.  Not bad.  I'm  hoping for a more skilled Coyle with a greater willingness to be tough.
3. Graovac C  Good size, though I've never heard he uses his size in a punishing way.  Great growth for the last couple of years and by all accounts dedicated to making himself the best.
4. Kaprizov LW  I've yet to hear anyone praise this pick to the extent I am high on him.  He may, possibly, end up being the best of all of the prospects.   In a limited role as a 17 year old, got 4 goals and 4 assists on his KHL team.  Over a point per game and an alternate captain on the Russian national team.  In watching his games online, he looks a bit like Zucker, but with perhaps better stick handling in tight corners.  Likes to get into open areas of the ice and definitely has a scorers mentality.  The Wild need to make a few more risky, scoring-oriented picks like this.
5. Olofsson LD  He's got size and a calmness about him.  He's lost an entire year of development.  He needs to be healthy the whole year.  We will have to be in big trouble with injuries for him to see the NHL this season.  He has Suter, Scandella, Reilly and Folin ahead of him on the LD depth chart.
6. Gabriel RW Not the greatest skill (perhaps that is being kind), but by every single report dedicated.  He will be nothing more than a 4th liner with limited minutes, as he'd have to continue to improve tremendously to be anything more.  He'll also have to add some PK to his game or his minutes will still be too limited for a consistent place in the lineup.
7. Bouramman RD  In my opinion, by the end of this next season he will be the top RD prospect. Dumba will already be established and there is nobody in the prospect pool with exceptional skill with a right-handed shot.  Seventh round??  He's been a point/game player in international play and got 44 points in 66 games in the OHL.  He wasn't the primary D on his team either.  The two leading defensemen were Darnell Nurse and Anthony DeAngelo.  He should be a point per game player by the end of the season.  As I've written in another entry, I'd expect the Wild to sign him during this season (before he gets more expensive!) and then possibly have him play in Iowa during the 16-17 season, as only European CHL players are allowed to do.
8. Lang C  As I considered the prospects over the course of the season, Chase Lang was someone who I had neglected to notice is doing some great things.  First of all, he doubled his point total in slightly fewer games, so there's that growth I look for.  He was one of the youngest players in his draft class.  He'll be the leading scorer returning to his OHL team next year and he should be getting major minutes in all roles, particularly PP.  He's 6'1" and a center.  I expect him to be signed before the end of this next season, maybe this fall.
9. Hoffman G  He's 6'4" and has had a GAA of under 3.00 for three years and in the low 2 range for the last two years.  His save percentage has been better than .920 for the last two years as well.  He and Michalek are going to be fighting each other for dominance and I'd give the advantage to Hoffman.
10. Greenway LW  A second round pick from just two months ago should be higher.  Most would have him higher.  A winger who is 6'6" and 218 lbs.  This does seem like a high risk, high reward player.  I really feel that a player with such a huge size advantage over opponents should have put up much better stats.  Nine goals and 39 assists last year in 53 games.  I don't  know how someone that size is getting assists and not goals around the mouth of the net.  Perhaps that is what I am missing.  Maybe he's a great playmaker, but I can't say I've ever read that about him.  His size advantage will diminish so he really has to develop his skill.
11. Lucia LW  He's bigger (6'3") but certainly more a skill player.  He's put up some points and has developed nicely.  In the few games I've watched of his while he's been at Notre Dame, I don't feel he's really stood out as much as I'd have expected.  He's going to have to grow (skill-wise) a lot more to be one of those "it's just a matter of when he's on an NHL roster" type of guy.  I do like that he seems to be more of a goal scorer compared to anything else. 
12. BelPedio RD  Though small, he's a good RD prospect.  He had a good Freshman year at Miami of Ohio.  A couple of years there with a year or two in the AHL against bigger men will make him ready to try for an NHL spot.
13. Mitchell W  I don't know much about him except that I've heard through the media that Mitchell had a real good rookie season in Iowa.  I don't know what role they're grooming him while in Iowa, but he anything more than average size.  I have him solely here because of the media notes about him.
14. Jenys F  Another bigger player, 6'3", who has skill.  He put up some reasonable points in his rookie season on a horrible OHL team.  As a Euro player in the OHL, he is eligible to play in Iowa.  I believe that if Minnesota thinks he will have to return to a horrible OHL team, they'd prefer to send him to Iowa for better development.
15. Bulmer W It seems like many fans, media and perhaps management types are down on Bulmer.  One thing is certainly true -his development has taken a hit due to injuries.  The knock on him now seems to be attitude.  It's been reported a number of times that MN Wild management were thinking about not offering him a contract this year.  They decided to and consider this his last chance.  Again, it doesn't seem so much about performance as much as attitude given his performance.  I rank him this high because of what he can bring to the line up:  a big, aggressive, reasonably skilled chirping player who does so against even the best players in the league -even as the greenest of rookies.  Perhaps it was his getting under Rick Nash's skin so much in a game when he was with the Wild for one of those games that so impressed me.  No doubt, this year is his last chance to show BOTH growth in his performance and improvement in his attitude.  Of particular importance is how he deals with not making the opening roster or being the first call up.
16. Bertschy C/W  It had seemed that this smallish 6th round pick from 2012 wasn't going to turn into anything.  In 2011-12 he had great international tournament numbers which probably led to his being drafted.  However, he followed that up with two relatively unimpressive years in the highest Swiss professional league.  Last year, however, his professional numbers really took off earning him 30 points in 44 games.  He was also an alternate captain on the team.  It'll be interesting to see for what position he is groomed in Iowa.  Minnesota lacks both size and offensive skill up the middle, yet this player likely projects to three years out from a regular role in the NHL, so maybe what he is groomed for shouldn't be determined by the current MN Wild roster.
17. Peterson C  Mr. Hockey in Minnesota was drafted in 2013 in the 6th round.  He's big at 6'3" and 218lbs.  He had a good Freshman year at Omaha with 11 goals and 21 points.  Much of the Freshman class at Omaha was good, as well.  Will he separate himself from the other Freshmen on his team this year?  From what I've read, foot speed and fitness issues are what have limited him to this point. 
18. Labbe LD Labbe had a great amount of growth this last year, doubling his points from the previous year.  Reports from the Wild via Michael Russo indicate that the organization is pleased with his development and are excited to see what he can do.  Russo identified him as forward, though I don't know if that's because he really doesn't keep his finger on the pulse of the status of prospects and he mispoke or if management is considering moving him to forward.  Maybe they see the logjam in the LD position on the NHL roster...
19. Stezka G    I feel good about this goalie draft pick, unlike how I usually feel about them.  He's big (6'4") has played very well in the Czech junior leagues, and has been good in the playoffs.  He's playing in the USHL this next season.  It will be nice to see how he performs in North America.
20. Michalek G  Michalek's signing came down to the last few days that Minnesota retained his rights.  It had been reported that Minnesota was disappointed with his performance during the first season they had his rights, but now are pleased, given how his GAA and save percentage have almost continually increased since that first poor season at Harvard.  This last year was a GAA of 2.28 with save percentage of .924 in 37 games played (a heavy load in college).
21. Boka RD  This was the lone pick from the 2015 draft I was going to leave off my list of top 25 prospects, then I figured out what Minnesota saw.  While he's probably just a bit over average size for a defenseman, he really racks up the penalty minutes and did play for the US development program team.  His points aren't as minuscule as some "physical" defensemen often have and he is a RIGHT shot defensemen -an area of great weakness in the prospect pool.   
22. Sadek RD  Was this the/a token state of Minnesota pick or University of Minnesota pick?  His stats are not on par with other MN high school defensemen who have succeeded in the NHL.  He does have some size and MN will be able to monitor (and manage) him closely since he will be playing at the U of Minnesota this fall.
23. Downing F  Downing won't be at #23 next year at this time.  He'll either drop off or shoot up.  He's 23, of average height, has put up some points, but hasn't shown incredible growth from his Freshman to his Senior year.  He has, however, put up four assists in the four AHL games he's played since turning pro last spring.
24. Duke C  Given two summers of good performances in the MN Wild prospect camp, I wonder where is the exceptional player during his WHL season?  I mean, he got in a fight and played with an edge in prospect camp, but his stats don't seem to match up to the prospect camp hype.
25. Gilmour C  Was not going to make the list until I realized I had made a few mistakes -like having two different players on this list twice.  Gilmour is entering his third season at Boston College.  He's a centerman who played with Alex Tuch for most of last season.  He's also bigger at 6'3" and has improved his point total with each year -so there hasn't been any regression, though there also hasn't been tremendous growth.  This year will be a big indicator of his prospects of being a...prospect.

This whole exercise has made me want to watch some prospects in games online instead of only relying on looking at their stats and reading media reports.  Now I guess I'll have to investigate the video quality of the various online resources.  I can't wait to see where I'm both correct and wildly wrong in my predictions!

MY top 25-under 25, part 1

Hockey Wilderness has made a top 25 list of prospects who are under 25 years old.  A great idea.  So, in one night and, thus, without as much elaboration as they likely will have, I decided to go through the exercise myself.

My criteria seeks to balance the likelihood of a prospect being on a NHL roster for more than a few games at some point in their career with to what degree they will be a real contributor on the the team.  A sure-thing 3rd/4th liner makes it, yet there are those more skilled players who likely won't be able to make the transition to the grinder role of a 4th liner for some variety of reasons.  Some players may have a significant role on some other NHL team besides the Wild because of contracts tying up roster spots.  Additionally, the most recent draft class gets the benefit of the doubt.  There weren't any "what??" choices this year unlike the last two years.

Finally, let me preface my amateur analysis with stating that I lack tons of information and context (don't virtually all bloggers??), and that I hope those that I say aren't very good prospects any more prove me wrong.  I think -truly and honestly- it would be super cool if someone like Pontus Sjalin or Louis Nanne actually had some time in the NHL.

1. Hoffman G
2. Michalek G
3. Gelinas D
   
4. Gudbranson D  He has size and blood (brother in the NHL), but little else.  His stats were unimpressive in the OHL and he did even less in Iowa.  I expect him to see a lot of games in the ECHL.
   
5. Labbe D
6. Olofsson D
7. Palmquist D  Might be good and if was 18 or 19 I'd give him the benefit of the doubt, but a solid though not stellar four year career in college doesn't scream NHL.
   
8. Warner D  Okay, I don't know shit compared to scouts, but I don't get this signing.  They sign him at 18 years old the summer after he wasn't drafted.  He's got size and racks up penalty minutes, but doesn't put up any points.  The large majority of  "physical" NHL players put up reasonable points in earlier leagues in which they played.  To put this in perspective, they wait after two camps before deciding to negotiate a deal to sign Tyler Johnson, but sign this guy right way.  Makes No Sense.
   
9. Bertschy F
10. Brassart-  I feel like Brassart is one of a few on my list of first "cuts" who, with a good year, can become a good prospect.  The reason he's on the "cut" list is because his first year in Iowa, while not bad, was quite unimpressive
11. Bulmer LW/RW
12. Bussieres  Looks like a 2nd round bust.  In just 9 fAHL games, Ralphy scored 0 points.  In the ECHL he got 16 points in 19 games.  The best ECHL players get about a point a game or more and they often have a tough time in the AHL, so he has to do much better.  Bussieres has to decide to become a Clutterbuck player.  I don't know if he has the speed, but he just has to realize he's not going to be a top 6 player and has to hit people.  Often.  And then again.  Actually that is true of a lot all of these first round of "cuts".
    
13. Downing  
14. Gabriel RW
15. Graovac C
16. BelPedio RD
17. Knight This fella who was acquired in the Phillips trade last year had clearly been spinning his wheels in the Boston organization.  He had a couple of good years in the OHL, but I don't see the development occurring in Iowa enough to make a difference at 23 years old.
    
18. Mitchell 
19. Eriksson-Ek C
20. Greenway LW
21. Stezka G
22. Kaprizov LW
23. Boka D
24. Bouramman D
25. Sadek D
26. Tuch RW
27. Kahkonen G  Sure, it's pretty cool that he scored two goals this year as a goalie, but his international play stats are unimpressive and he hasn't had any time called up to the top Finnish professional league.  Beyond his performance, the performance of both Michalek and Hoffman will have a big impactc on whether they offer him a contract by the June 1, 2016 deadline. 
28. Sjalin D  Seriously, what on Earth was MN thinking???  You can't tell me that he was on anyone's radar.  The thing is, they have to sign this guy by next June 1st or "lose his rights".   I can't see why they would or the mystery will only have deepened!  I think this pick is more strategic, as in doing a favor for someone in the Swedish Elite League.  His dad is an assistant  coach on Ostersunds IK, a development league in Sweden.  I think that is in some way the reason for this pick.
29. Faith D  Another head scratcher.  Hurt in his draft year, but prior to that completely unimpressive stats.  Then, of course, he gets a season ending injury the following year.  In the absence of a great year in Canada and despite his size, he won't be signed.
    
30. Lang C
31. Duke C
32. Jenys C/LW
33. Olofsson D
34. Labbe D
35. Soucy D  I like his size but despite reports coming from the Wild organization that they are pleased with his development (mentioned now two prospect camps in a row) his Duluth statistics and his performance in games I've watched leave me absolutely unimpressed.  He must "become" a shut down and -even better- mean, nasty player to make himself a more valuable asset.
    
36. Peterson C
37. Draeger D  Hasn't done much in 3 years at Michigan State.  You can't sign every prospect and he seems like one to let go.  I'm completely confident that nobody in MN Wild management will say, "I wish we had signed him."
    
38. DeJong D  He's scored 0 goals in two years at the University of Michigan.  What's he going to do when he goes pro?
    
39. Gilmour C 
40. Nanne  Anyone have any guesses why this player was drafted?  Anyone?  Obviously because of Grandpa Nanne, and perhaps that is wise.  He was poor on a team and in a league where only a very few of the absolute best players see the NHL.  I am very anxious to see if he is even offered a contract.  Given he decided against going to the University of Minnesota because of pride, I suspect he will realize that if/when a contract is offered.
    
41. Seeler D  Unimpressive stats in Omaha -even under a great coach- plus a year off means his chances are remote at best of hitting the NHL.
    
42. Lucia LW
43. Gustafsson  So good in Sweden, so bad in North America.  Despite MN holding his rights, he won't be back.
    

Most of the names above that were eliminated were easy, which now leaves...

1. Hoffman G
2. Michalek G
3. Gilmour C
4. Bertschy F
5. Bulmer LW/RW
6. Downing F
7. Gabriel RW
8. Graovac C
9. Mitchell W
10. Eriksson-Ek C
11. Greenway LW
12. Stezka G
13. Kaprizov LW
14. Boka D
15. BelPedio RD
16. Bouramman D
17. Sadek D
18. Tuch RW
19. Lang C
20. Duke C
21. Jenys C/LW
22. Olofsson D
23. Labbe D
24. Peterson C
25. Lucia LW

Kirill Kaprizov preseason game in its entirety

on youtube.  https://youtu.be/FaG-HnofCqQ  In this game, he is #7 in the red.  Minnesotans Ryan Stoa (#94) and Cade Fairchild are also playing.