MY top 25-under 25, part 2

Let me start with what I prefaced my previous post on this topic:

Hockey Wilderness has made a top 25 list of prospects who are under 25 years old.  A great idea.  So, in one night (okay, part 2 was written on a second night...) and, thus, without as much elaboration as they likely will have, I decided to go through the exercise myself.

My criteria seeks to balance the likelihood of a prospect being on a NHL roster for more than a few games at some point in their career with to what degree they will be a real contributor on the the team.  A sure-thing 3rd/4th liner makes it, yet there are those more skilled players who likely won't be able to make the transition to the grinder role of a 4th liner for some variety of reasons.  Some players may have a significant role on some other NHL team besides the Wild because of contracts tying up roster spots.  Additionally, the most recent draft class gets the benefit of the doubt.  There weren't any "what??" choices this year unlike the last two years.  On the other hand, in some instances players who were just signed or drafted could be at a disadvantage because, just as they have less to discount them, there is less to propel them to the higher end of the rankings.

Finally, let me preface my amateur analysis with stating that I lack tons of information and context (don't virtually all bloggers??), and that I hope those that I say aren't very good prospects any more prove me wrong.  I think -truly and honestly- it would be super cool if someone like Pontus Sjalin or Louis Nanne actually had some time in the NHL.

Now, to part 2...

1. Eriksson-Ek C  He's a bigger center, with a good shot who plays a two way game.  Okay, we need a bigger center with a good shot.  Two-way game?  Yawn.  I just hope he's got more offense than Mikko.
2. Tuch RW  Size, skill, leading scorer as a Freshman on his Boston College team.  Not bad.  I'm  hoping for a more skilled Coyle with a greater willingness to be tough.
3. Graovac C  Good size, though I've never heard he uses his size in a punishing way.  Great growth for the last couple of years and by all accounts dedicated to making himself the best.
4. Kaprizov LW  I've yet to hear anyone praise this pick to the extent I am high on him.  He may, possibly, end up being the best of all of the prospects.   In a limited role as a 17 year old, got 4 goals and 4 assists on his KHL team.  Over a point per game and an alternate captain on the Russian national team.  In watching his games online, he looks a bit like Zucker, but with perhaps better stick handling in tight corners.  Likes to get into open areas of the ice and definitely has a scorers mentality.  The Wild need to make a few more risky, scoring-oriented picks like this.
5. Olofsson LD  He's got size and a calmness about him.  He's lost an entire year of development.  He needs to be healthy the whole year.  We will have to be in big trouble with injuries for him to see the NHL this season.  He has Suter, Scandella, Reilly and Folin ahead of him on the LD depth chart.
6. Gabriel RW Not the greatest skill (perhaps that is being kind), but by every single report dedicated.  He will be nothing more than a 4th liner with limited minutes, as he'd have to continue to improve tremendously to be anything more.  He'll also have to add some PK to his game or his minutes will still be too limited for a consistent place in the lineup.
7. Bouramman RD  In my opinion, by the end of this next season he will be the top RD prospect. Dumba will already be established and there is nobody in the prospect pool with exceptional skill with a right-handed shot.  Seventh round??  He's been a point/game player in international play and got 44 points in 66 games in the OHL.  He wasn't the primary D on his team either.  The two leading defensemen were Darnell Nurse and Anthony DeAngelo.  He should be a point per game player by the end of the season.  As I've written in another entry, I'd expect the Wild to sign him during this season (before he gets more expensive!) and then possibly have him play in Iowa during the 16-17 season, as only European CHL players are allowed to do.
8. Lang C  As I considered the prospects over the course of the season, Chase Lang was someone who I had neglected to notice is doing some great things.  First of all, he doubled his point total in slightly fewer games, so there's that growth I look for.  He was one of the youngest players in his draft class.  He'll be the leading scorer returning to his OHL team next year and he should be getting major minutes in all roles, particularly PP.  He's 6'1" and a center.  I expect him to be signed before the end of this next season, maybe this fall.
9. Hoffman G  He's 6'4" and has had a GAA of under 3.00 for three years and in the low 2 range for the last two years.  His save percentage has been better than .920 for the last two years as well.  He and Michalek are going to be fighting each other for dominance and I'd give the advantage to Hoffman.
10. Greenway LW  A second round pick from just two months ago should be higher.  Most would have him higher.  A winger who is 6'6" and 218 lbs.  This does seem like a high risk, high reward player.  I really feel that a player with such a huge size advantage over opponents should have put up much better stats.  Nine goals and 39 assists last year in 53 games.  I don't  know how someone that size is getting assists and not goals around the mouth of the net.  Perhaps that is what I am missing.  Maybe he's a great playmaker, but I can't say I've ever read that about him.  His size advantage will diminish so he really has to develop his skill.
11. Lucia LW  He's bigger (6'3") but certainly more a skill player.  He's put up some points and has developed nicely.  In the few games I've watched of his while he's been at Notre Dame, I don't feel he's really stood out as much as I'd have expected.  He's going to have to grow (skill-wise) a lot more to be one of those "it's just a matter of when he's on an NHL roster" type of guy.  I do like that he seems to be more of a goal scorer compared to anything else. 
12. BelPedio RD  Though small, he's a good RD prospect.  He had a good Freshman year at Miami of Ohio.  A couple of years there with a year or two in the AHL against bigger men will make him ready to try for an NHL spot.
13. Mitchell W  I don't know much about him except that I've heard through the media that Mitchell had a real good rookie season in Iowa.  I don't know what role they're grooming him while in Iowa, but he anything more than average size.  I have him solely here because of the media notes about him.
14. Jenys F  Another bigger player, 6'3", who has skill.  He put up some reasonable points in his rookie season on a horrible OHL team.  As a Euro player in the OHL, he is eligible to play in Iowa.  I believe that if Minnesota thinks he will have to return to a horrible OHL team, they'd prefer to send him to Iowa for better development.
15. Bulmer W It seems like many fans, media and perhaps management types are down on Bulmer.  One thing is certainly true -his development has taken a hit due to injuries.  The knock on him now seems to be attitude.  It's been reported a number of times that MN Wild management were thinking about not offering him a contract this year.  They decided to and consider this his last chance.  Again, it doesn't seem so much about performance as much as attitude given his performance.  I rank him this high because of what he can bring to the line up:  a big, aggressive, reasonably skilled chirping player who does so against even the best players in the league -even as the greenest of rookies.  Perhaps it was his getting under Rick Nash's skin so much in a game when he was with the Wild for one of those games that so impressed me.  No doubt, this year is his last chance to show BOTH growth in his performance and improvement in his attitude.  Of particular importance is how he deals with not making the opening roster or being the first call up.
16. Bertschy C/W  It had seemed that this smallish 6th round pick from 2012 wasn't going to turn into anything.  In 2011-12 he had great international tournament numbers which probably led to his being drafted.  However, he followed that up with two relatively unimpressive years in the highest Swiss professional league.  Last year, however, his professional numbers really took off earning him 30 points in 44 games.  He was also an alternate captain on the team.  It'll be interesting to see for what position he is groomed in Iowa.  Minnesota lacks both size and offensive skill up the middle, yet this player likely projects to three years out from a regular role in the NHL, so maybe what he is groomed for shouldn't be determined by the current MN Wild roster.
17. Peterson C  Mr. Hockey in Minnesota was drafted in 2013 in the 6th round.  He's big at 6'3" and 218lbs.  He had a good Freshman year at Omaha with 11 goals and 21 points.  Much of the Freshman class at Omaha was good, as well.  Will he separate himself from the other Freshmen on his team this year?  From what I've read, foot speed and fitness issues are what have limited him to this point. 
18. Labbe LD Labbe had a great amount of growth this last year, doubling his points from the previous year.  Reports from the Wild via Michael Russo indicate that the organization is pleased with his development and are excited to see what he can do.  Russo identified him as forward, though I don't know if that's because he really doesn't keep his finger on the pulse of the status of prospects and he mispoke or if management is considering moving him to forward.  Maybe they see the logjam in the LD position on the NHL roster...
19. Stezka G    I feel good about this goalie draft pick, unlike how I usually feel about them.  He's big (6'4") has played very well in the Czech junior leagues, and has been good in the playoffs.  He's playing in the USHL this next season.  It will be nice to see how he performs in North America.
20. Michalek G  Michalek's signing came down to the last few days that Minnesota retained his rights.  It had been reported that Minnesota was disappointed with his performance during the first season they had his rights, but now are pleased, given how his GAA and save percentage have almost continually increased since that first poor season at Harvard.  This last year was a GAA of 2.28 with save percentage of .924 in 37 games played (a heavy load in college).
21. Boka RD  This was the lone pick from the 2015 draft I was going to leave off my list of top 25 prospects, then I figured out what Minnesota saw.  While he's probably just a bit over average size for a defenseman, he really racks up the penalty minutes and did play for the US development program team.  His points aren't as minuscule as some "physical" defensemen often have and he is a RIGHT shot defensemen -an area of great weakness in the prospect pool.   
22. Sadek RD  Was this the/a token state of Minnesota pick or University of Minnesota pick?  His stats are not on par with other MN high school defensemen who have succeeded in the NHL.  He does have some size and MN will be able to monitor (and manage) him closely since he will be playing at the U of Minnesota this fall.
23. Downing F  Downing won't be at #23 next year at this time.  He'll either drop off or shoot up.  He's 23, of average height, has put up some points, but hasn't shown incredible growth from his Freshman to his Senior year.  He has, however, put up four assists in the four AHL games he's played since turning pro last spring.
24. Duke C  Given two summers of good performances in the MN Wild prospect camp, I wonder where is the exceptional player during his WHL season?  I mean, he got in a fight and played with an edge in prospect camp, but his stats don't seem to match up to the prospect camp hype.
25. Gilmour C  Was not going to make the list until I realized I had made a few mistakes -like having two different players on this list twice.  Gilmour is entering his third season at Boston College.  He's a centerman who played with Alex Tuch for most of last season.  He's also bigger at 6'3" and has improved his point total with each year -so there hasn't been any regression, though there also hasn't been tremendous growth.  This year will be a big indicator of his prospects of being a...prospect.

This whole exercise has made me want to watch some prospects in games online instead of only relying on looking at their stats and reading media reports.  Now I guess I'll have to investigate the video quality of the various online resources.  I can't wait to see where I'm both correct and wildly wrong in my predictions!

Stream of conciousness thoughts

1. These random thoughts will be repeated, elaborated upon, etc, as the year(s) progress... Over the summer, I liked it when I heard in an interview that Torchetti, the Iowa Wild coach, explained to Tyler Graovac -and I suppose some others- that they probably aren't going to be going to Minnesota soon to be top six forwards. They have to be very good 3rd/4th liners. Strong defensively, perhaps good on PK and able to contribute some offensively. He noted they had to go all out for 30-45 seconds because they weren't going to be playing 20 minutes a game. 
2.  As I look at the pool of prospects for MN both in Iowa and those that are unsigned but will likely play in Iowa in a few years, it seems there are two areas where they simply don't have many prospects: Left wing and, more obviously, right defense. Gustav Bouramman, though a 7th round pick (strangely when you look at stats), has a terrific opportunity to be the best RD prospect. I expect him to be signed sometime during the year and, if he has a really good year, play in Iowa as a 19 year old Euro. Euro players can play in AHL, US and Canadian players can't until they are 20. Minnesota does have Jordan Greenway in the pool as a LW, but I think he isn't that great. He kind of reminds me of Colton Gilles but at least Greenway was a 2nd and not a 1st round pick! Mario Lucia might be good, but I seriously have no idea if he is NHL material. I REALLY hope he is our Anders Lee!
3.  I really hope that Brett Bulmer is re-signed and that he brings a positive attitude to camp this fall. He's played some NHL games already and if he stays healthy I feel he will be one of a few players that will rotate into the RW 4th line slot this next season in Minnesota. I get the feeling that he had a bad attitude and, perhaps, for that reason they haven't signed him. They may be trying to move him like they moved Zack Phillips -though that is an insult to Bulmer. 
4. This is a big season for Marc Hagel. He's already 26 and though he seems to continue to improve, he has to accelerate that improvement to be on an NHL roster or be a call-up this year or next.  I think he might be a good example of "too little, too late" to be the next Fontaine.
5. Speaking of Fontaine, if Minnesota has a good replacement in the system from Iowa, I'd expect Fontaine to be traded by the deadline.  He certainly won't be brought back for the 16-17 season.
6. I do think that Reid Duke is signed before the end of the season and probably sooner rather than later. He will be eligible to go to Iowa in 16-17. This season will determine if he goes there or back to the WHL for an "overage" season. Someone about whom I am wonder Minnesota will sign is Chase Lang. He just seems unremarkable. I don't seen an "edge" to his game. He is, however, amongst the youngest in his draft class, so that has to be taken into consideration. He has put up some points on his team, though.  
7. I expect MN to either draft another Russian in the lower rounds next summer or sign one. This will be done so that Kaprizov isn't the only Russian in the system. It would be done SOLELY to make him more comfortable to sign with Minnesota. 
8.  I don't see how/why Minnesota would sign Pontus Sjalin and Tanner Faith (must be signed by June 1st, 2016) or Nolan De Jong and John Draeger -both of whom have done nothing since they've been drafted. The same is likely true for Nick Seeler. I wonder if Adam Gilmour will even want to sign with Minnesota -just a feeling, not based on logic. Finally, despite no logical performance reason to do so, Minnesota will likely sign Nanne when he leaves school just to placate Lou Nanne, his grandfather who has strong ties to MN hockey and also to the Wild. I do think, however, that Louie Nanne, the draft pick, might be proud and insightful enough to know that he doesn't merit an NHL entry level contract.

Link to my projectd 2015-16 Iowa Wild line-up

The line-up is just based upon where I feel they are on the Minnesota Wild depth chart, the role Minnesota is likely grooming them for (scoring, powerplay, etc.), and whether they are left or right shot or have played center. I hope to check out a few Iowa games on my computer to see how they do over the season -particularly since the Minnesota roster won't likely be too different this year.

I believe Reilly will be sent to Iowa to begin to become accustomed to the physical aspects of professional hockey and to give him significant minutes, including on the powerplay.  I think Folin will be sent, as well, for the minutes reason and also, because he doesn't have to go through waivers to be sent, whereas some "bubble" forwards like Keranen and Schroeder would.

I used the tools on the website NHLGuru.net.

Feel free to leave any feedback!

Cap numbers are meaningless for this purpose (AHL) and are automatically included from website.

FORWARDS

R. Fedotenko ($ 600,000) --- T. Graovac ($ 747,500) --- M. Hagel ($ 700,000)

G. Downing ($ 692,500) --- B. Sutter ($ 600,000) --- Z. Mitchell ($ 615,000)

C. Bertschy ($ 925,000) --- Z. Dalpe ($ 700,000) --- J. Knight ($ 761,000)

B. Brassart ($ 836,667) --- P. Jenys ($ 683,333) --- K. Gabriel ($ 666,667)

DEFENCE

M. Reilly ($ 925,000) --- C. Folin ($ 725,000)

G. Olofsson ($ 795,000) --- T. Strachan ($ 650,000)

D. Labbe ($ 692,500) --- Z. Palmquist ($ 692,500)

GOAL

B. Hoffman ($ 925,000)

S. Michalek

Extras

R. Bussieres ($ 759,167) --- B. Bulmer ($ 780,000) --- G. Gelinas ($ 596,667) --- ($ )